For months when I predicted staggering numbers like this data-fetishists said NO YOU’RE INSANE THE DATA DOESN’T SHOW ANYTHING LIKE THAT. They were wrong, because “the data” had zero predictive value when it came to the nihilism and denialism of Trump and the GOP. Here’s the thing: As the percentage of sick people who die drops, death loses its ‘value’ as an indicator of systemic damage. If everyone who gets sick dies, it’s an excellent indicator; if 1 out of 1000 die, it’s a terrible indicator. And, as we’ve seen, supposedly reduced mortality rates are regularly used as an argument for policies that will make more people sick — hence the mania to reopen at any cost. Thanks to the magic of bullsh*t statistical rhetoric, “more people will die” becomes “but less people are dying!” ALL OF THIS was obvious months ago, but people were hypnotized by “the data.” I’m sticking to my first prediction: by the time this is done, close to 2 million dead. Why? Because even if the Dems win the presidency AND Trump accepts it — which I think is very unlikely — they only get the keys to the White House in late January. A smooth transition? LOLZ. Trump will do everything in his power to kneecap them. Dem policies would be lucky to get serious traction by March; May would be more likely if they take the Senate. If the predictions in this story turn out, with 260–500K dead by the end of 2020, that situation gives you a sense of how 2021 will start, with rampant infection. Now add to that the mounting economic and social chaos fueled by GOP fanatics clinging to their murderous policies, jaw-dropping numbers of businesses going bust, and huge swaths of the populace dead-broke — all of this heading into winter. Most of the social distancing strategies being developed now are suited to warm weather, but from late fall through mid-spring huge parts of the US are freezing or even bitterly cold. I could go on and on. It gets worse, much worse. But, really, the only thing that’s distinguished my pessimistic analyses from most others is that the others indulge in magical thinking about C-19 ending. The curves would be symmetrical, the schools would suspend for a few weeks then see, the numbers would drop, the first wave would crest, there would be some treatment or vaccine, etc, etc. It was and is all rubbish: it won’t end until we, the people, end it. If everyone in the US adopted rigorous personal and social hygiene practices, C-19 would be under control in about 6 weeks and the rest would be clean-up. But that won’t happen — and as long it doesn’t, there’s no end in sight. So, if we’re all still around, let’s talk a year from now and you can tell me how crazy and wrong I was.Updated Jul 09, 2020 3:01:12 amJul 09, 2020 3:01:12 am