[Orig to FB]
The idea that the US ever would or could fight an actual, serious war against China is a quaint delusion, barely one step above Trump’s senescent fantasy that we can just “take” Iran’s oil. What, the US is going to send its big mean Navy across the Pacific to bomb Beijing into submission? Or are we going to send our boys over there to invade — you know, enough “boots on the ground” to occupy Shanghai (22M people), Beijing (19M), Shenzhen (18M), Guangzhou (16M), Chengdu (14M), Tianjin (11M), Wuhan (11M), Donguan (10M), Chongqing (10), Xi’an (9M), Hangzhou (9M), and all the other millions needed to make 1.4 BILLION people? And they’ll be supported by a country where every single thing, from the smallest screw to the most immense prefab construction module, is literally made in China? If the PRC pulled the plug on even a tiny fraction of its business with the US — financial, material, technical, logistical, and of course human — the entire country would collapse without the slightest hope of rebuilding. Ever. Amazon? Crickets. The big-box stores that killed off entire categories of mom-and-pops across the country? Shelves empty. Got a vehicle, an appliance, a computer, a machine, a device, a gizmo, or a system of any kind that breaks? You’ll never fix it, so it’s only value will be cannibalizing it for parts. Food? Enjoy waiting in line for whatever’s available, because countless ingredients needed for industrial-scale food prep in factories and restaurants will run out. And it’s not just this or that system or thing breaking — the repercussions of every failure would ripple out and cascade across every aspect of life at every scale. But you’ll never hear anyone say any of this. Quite the opposite: Serious People love to speculate about the coming war with China, and speculating about the coming war with China is a sign that you’re a Serious Person.