[Orig to FB]
This piece ) [Amoah, Bazilian, Matisek, “The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions,” FP (2026-3-05)] is long but worth reading if you’re interested in what’s happening and where it’s all headed. This, on top of the fact that Trump and Hegseth burned through 15–10% of the US’s THAAD antimissile stockpile last summer in just a week and a half of attacking Iran…
But here’s the big picture: Between the Russia/Ukraine war and this, what’s happening is a fundamental shift in how wars will be conducted — away from ridiculously sopshiticated and expensive showcase systems toward swarms of drones. That isn’t a new idea by any means: it’s been in the air for 35+ years. However, this doesn’t mean the US actually absorbed that recognition enough to restructure our military around it.
It’s not just the hardware stuff that just-add-water internet experts fetishize every time we have a war. The real issue is the vast, ponderous process of — and this cliché will take on newly ironic dimensions now — “turning the aircraft carrier around”:
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the human aspects (planning, training, integration, assessment, balancing, etc, etc)
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the strategic aspects (resource analysis, alliances, threat modeling, diplomatic and political coordination, etc)
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the logistical aspects (design, planning, infrastructure buildout, local expertise / integration / liaising, etc)
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…and budgeting. And contingency planning. And all the facilities, every touch point for every dollar that gets spent on every aspect of supporting this all.
If you think your company or your university or your city is complicated, try running a hegemonic globe-spanning network.
But there’s one big difference this time: everyone in the world has seen how easily that hegemon goes insane, so no one will play ball.
The short version is that this war will mark the true end of the “pax americana.” The spoils will go to whoever can build and deploy the biggest arsenal of cheap drones and has access to the technical penumbra needed to use them effectively. And one non-obvious inflection no one else will tell you: the centers of gravity will shift back to land masses because the seas will no longer be safe.